O VIZIUNE TEHNICA ASUPRA CONVERGENTEI ECONOMICE A ROMANIEI

Autor/autori: Lect. dr. ec. matem. Mihaela VARTOLOMEI

Rezumat: Obiectivul principal al aceastei lucrari este de a analiza din punct de vedere tehnic problematica privind convergenta economica (testarea sigma convergentei). Metodologia utlizata consta in analiza economica, metoda compartiva, metoda statistica, simulare si testare a ? - convergentei, metoda grafica. Baza de date consta in Eurostat. Tehnica utilizata este Excel. In urma simularii evolutiei PIB/locuitor la PPS in cadrul ECE-10 si UE-27 s-a observat ca pe aceasta perioada s-a inregistrat ? - convergenta atat in ECE-10 cat si in UE-27, cu perioade de ? - divergente (2008-2009 in ECE-10 si 2005-2006 si 2009-2010 in UE-27). Desi statele sarace dinECE-10 inregistreaza cresteri ale PIB/locuitor si scaderi in dispersia PIB, recuperarile (decalajele) raman mari. Acest fapt se poate datora recesiunii mondiale care a influentat atragerea de investitii straine (ca factor de crestere), scaderea consumului (prin cresterea preturilor interne – inflatia – si externe – cursul de schimb), sau epifenomene (de exemplu perturbatiile integrarii politice). Natura cercetarii este conceptuala, de aplicare empirica si de testare. Originalitatea consta in modul de abordare a convergentei iar noutatea in cazuistica Romaniei.

Cuvinte cheie: catching-up, disparitati, ? - convergenta, coeficient de variatie, dispersie.

Abstract: The paper’s main objective is to analyze the economic convergence problem from technical view (testing ? - convergence). The methodology used consist in economic analysis, comparative method, statistics method, testing ? - convergence, graph method. Data base used is Eurostat and technical tool is Excel. The results of the GDP/capita in PPS simulation inside ECE-10 and EU-27 confirm the existence of ? - convergence both in ECE-10 and in EU-27, with some ? - divergence periods (2008-2009 for ECE-10 and 2005-2006 and 2009- 2010 for EU-27). Although the poorer countries from ECE-10 registered increase in GDP/inhabitant and decreases in GDP variance, it is still necessary catching-up process. This situation can be determined by world recession that had high influence over foreign investment absorption (as economic growth factor), decrease in consumption (through the increase of domestic price – inflation rate – or external price – exempli gratia exchange rate), or second factors too (e.g. political integration influence). The research is conceptual one, empirical study and testing the convergence. The originality results from the convergence approach manner and the novelty consists in Romanian study case.

Keywords: catching-up, disparities, ? - convergence, coefficient of variation, variance

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